Decision Analysis Essay Example for Free

Decision Analysis Essay Finally, some typical problem classes are examined and some requirements for prototypical structures are discussed. An introduction to problem structuring Decision analysis can be divided into four steps: structuring the problem; formulating inference and preference models; eliciting probabilities and utilities; and exploring the numerical model results. Prac* This research was supported by a grant from the Department of Defense and was monitored by the Engineering Psychology Programs of the Office of Naval Research, under contract While writing this paper, the author discussed the problem of structuring extensively with Helmut Jungermann. The present version owes much to his thought. Please don’t take footnote 3 too seriously. It is part of a footnote war between Ralph Keeney and me. ** Presently with the Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, University Park, Los Angeles, CA 90007, (213) 741-6955. 12 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems titioners of decision analysis generally agree that structuring is the most important and difficult step of the analysis. Yet, until recently, decision analytic research has all but ignored structuring, concentrating instead on questions of modeling and elicitation. As a result, structuring was, and to some extent still is, considered the ‘art’ part of decision analysis. This paper examines some attempts to turn this art into a science. Trees are the most common decision analytic structures. Decision trees, for example, represent the sequential aspects of a decision problem (see Raiffa 1968; Brown et al. 1974). Other examples are goal trees for the representations of values (Keeney and Raiffa 1976) and event trees for the representation f inferential problem aspects (Kelly and Barclay 1973). In fact, trees so much dominate decision analytic structures that structuring is often considered synonymous to building a tree.

Schools Should Prepare Children For Life In Society :: essays research papers

Schools Should Prepare Children For Life in Society In today's information society people often think that characters from TV-shows or talkshow guests reflect our society. Although that opinion is rather based on the disability of people to use information than on any logical thoughts, there is something every talkshow reminds us of: people are not perfect. So, I say, society can not be perfect either. I believe that society works by that society doesn't work. People are too different to put them all into one melting pot, but you have to, because otherwise society would end in destruction and hate (as seen in the Third Reich). I believe that schools have an obligation to prepare children for life in society. Therefore they don't necessarily have the ability to change society but I think today's situation in Germany is not nearly as bad as the situation in "Dead poet's society", a movie based on a true story. In the movie a teacher tries to let his students be creative and critical towards everything they see and hear while neglecting values like punctuality and obedience. At first he is successful, but as soon as the school board notices his ambitions, he gets suspended for some odd reason. If a teacher in Germany tries to influence students in the way that they are more creative that is generally seen as positive, but what almost makes this impossible is the number of students in a class and the time frame of just 45 minutes, which is short if you are going to hear all the different opinions of all the students. If we accept that there do exist problems in society that need to get fixed, we also have to see that it is not school's job to do this alone.

Herbert Mead. Analysis Is Mind, Self, Society

Sarah Kuntz 10/4/12 Essay 2: Herbert Mead, Mind, Self, and Society Herbert Gilbert Mead, the author of Mind, Self, and Society, is introduced by Charles w. Morris which gives a perspective to Mead before the accumulation of his essays. Mead was influenced by Charles Darwin and Watson’s behaviorism however he was greatly tilted to Watson’s behaviorism. Although he considered Watson’s views â€Å"oversimplified† he did refer himself to be a behaviorist. Mead goes further to mention, â€Å"the denial of the private nor the neglect of consciousness, but the approach to all experience in terms of conduct. In his essay the Mind, Mead simplifies the approach to understanding the mind in simple building blocks of gestures, symbols and language. Mead was trying to answer the age old question of how the mind arises. His answer was that the, â€Å"Mind arises through communication by a conversion of gestures in a social process or context of experience-not communic ation through mind† (p 50). These specific gestures then become the symbols and are communicated to others in an idea. Due to this communication is a constant adjustment to others and to their reactions.The future communication becomes more eminent in the beginning of actions and reactions constantly occurring. In the essay the Self, the mind gives way (in the actions and reactions) to language and symbols which then possible for development. This development is our self and reference point for certain events in our lives, emotions and different sensations (p. 136). Mead goes on to discuss how the self does arise, â€Å"it arises through play, and games and the idea of generalized other. That organized community gives the individual his â€Å"unity of self† and the attitude of generalized other is that of the whole community† (p. 155).Mead is explaining that our entire self reflects the tweaking of our self to match society. Furthermore, the final essay the Socie ty, he brings accumulation of ideas of the mind and the self to relate it to society. Mead mentions that insects base their societies on physiological differences unlike the man who bases society on those around him. Man is seen to constantly change his environment by the way he uses it and create a community by a common language. What one does is defined by others, such as religion or economics. Both of these call for enormous amounts of identification and needs an audience to acknowledge this identification.So as far as he is a self, and part of a community and his contribution is must be social (p. 324). Personally I understand Mead’s views on how the mind can be somewhat defined by behaviors into chain reactions. However this leaves the concept of deception and lying in behaviors. At times there is more to what meets the eye, and what is said and understood has multiple meanings. The human mind is so complex and defining it to just one behavior would still be simplifying the concept. I do agree with Mead on the concept of society. Society plays a very important role which man will always for the most part, mirror his actions.

What is an Open Admissions Policy for College

Hundreds of colleges and universities in the United States have open admissions. In its purest form, an open admissions policy means that any student with a high school diploma or GED certificate can attend. With guaranteed acceptance, open admissions policies are all about access and opportunity: any student who has completed high school has the option of pursuing a college degree. History of Open Admissions The open admissions movement began in the second half of the 20th century and had many ties to the civil rights movement. California and New York were on the forefront of making college accessible to  all  high school graduates. CUNY, the City University of New York, moved to an open admissions policy in 1970, an action that greatly increased enrollment and provided far greater college access to Hispanic and black students. Since then, CUNY ideals clashed with fiscal reality, and the four-year colleges in the system no longer have open admissions. How Open Is Open Admissions? The reality of open admissions often clashes with the ideal. At four-year colleges, students are sometimes guaranteed admission only if they meet minimum test score and GPA requirements. In some situations, a four-year college often collaborates with a community college so that students who dont meet the minimum requirements can still begin their college educations. Also, guaranteed admission to an open admission college doesnt always mean that a student can take courses. If a college has too many applicants, students may find themselves waitlisted for some if not all courses. This scenario has proven all too common in the current economic climate in which school resources and funding are stretched thin. Community colleges are almost always open admissions as are a significant number of four-year colleges and universities. As college applicants come up with their short list of reach, match, and safety schools, an open admissions institution will always be a safety school (this is assuming the applicant meets any minimum requirements for admission). Examples of Open Admission Colleges and Universities Open admission schools can be found throughout the United States, and they vary significantly. Some are private while many are public. Some are two-year schools offering associate degrees, while others offer bachelor degrees. Some are tiny schools of just a few hundred students, while others are large institutions with enrollments in the thousands. This brief list helps illustrate the diversity of open admission schools: Nearly all community collegesDixie State University: A four-year public university in St. George, UtahArkansas Baptist College: A four-year private college in Little Rock, ArkansasSalem International University: A four-year for-profit university in Salem, West VirginiaTennessee State University: A four-year historically black university in Nashville, TennesseeGranite State College: A four-year public university in Concord, New HampshireUniversity of Maine at Augusta: A four-year public university in Augusta, Maine Some Problems Related to Open Admissions An open admission policy is not without its critics who argue that graduation rates tend to be low, college standards are lowered, and the need for remedial courses increases. Many colleges with open admission policies have that policy out of necessity rather than any sense of altruism of social justice. If a college is struggling to meet enrollment goals, admissions standards can erode to the point of having few standards at all. The result can be that colleges collect tuition dollars from students who are ill-prepared for college and unlikely to ever earn a degree. So while the idea of open admissions may sound admirable because of the access to higher education it can provide, the policy  can create its own issues: Many students are not academically prepared to succeed in college and have never attempted the level of rigor required in college classes.Many students will need to take remedial courses before they can take college-level courses. These courses are typically at a high school level and will not fulfill college graduation requirements.Graduation rates tend to be low, often in the teens or even single digits. At Tennessee State, for example, only 18% of students graduate in four years. At Granite State College, that number is just 8%.With so few students graduating in four years, costs increase with every subsequent semester of coursework.While tuition is often lower than at more selective schools, grant aid is often limited. Open admission institutions rarely have the endowments and financial resources for financial aid that more selective colleges and universities have. Put together, these issues can lead to significant problems for many students. At some open admission institutions, a majority of students will fail to earn a diploma but will go into debt in the attempt. A Final Word About Open Admissions Policies Dont let the problems facing many open admission schools discourage you; rather, use that information to make an informed decision about your college journey. If you are motivated and hard-working, an open admission university can open many doors that will enrich you personal life and expand your professional opportunities.